Thanks for reading EV Cents by Recurrent. Each edition brings you clear, data-driven insights from 1 billion miles of EV driving to help you better understand your car and the market.
‘Where’ matters more than ‘what’
Three out of every four new cars sold in parts of California will have a plug by 2030, according to the latest numbers from one of the auto industry's top EV forecasters. At the same time, other parts of the country will be closer to zero.
Same country
Same car models
Two completely different experiences
We sat down with Nathan Niese, managing director at Boston Consulting Group, which forecasts global EV adoption. His headline takeaway was about divergence: a growing gap between where EVs are becoming the default and where they're still a curiosity.
Nathan splits the U.S. into two markets. The CARB states, including California and more than a dozen others that follow its lead, are tracking close to Europe's path above 50% plug-in by 2030. Everyone else sits around 5% or lower.
Image Credit: Geotab
Adoption isn't a single statistic. It's experiences that compound. Where EVs are common, the entire ownership experience bends in your favor.
More public chargers get built because there's demand to justify them.
Dealers stock more models, so you actually have a selection.
Service techs know how to work on your car.
State incentives may still be in play even with the federal $7,500 gone.
You're surrounded by people who already own one.
"My personal goal is to get friends and family to have their butts in the passenger seat," Nathan said. "They get to plug in for the first time and see how easy it is. That gets the wheels turning."
The more EVs around you, the faster the next person buys one.
But flip it around, and the friction stacks the other way. In a low-adoption state: fewer chargers, thinner inventory, fewer people to ask, and a dealer who'd rather sell you something familiar. That can noticeably change the entire EV experience.
This gap is only widening. Niese's forecast has the "EV winter" in the US lifting closer to 2028, and even then the recovery won't land evenly. The CARB states will keep pulling toward Europe while the non-CARB states stay early-stage.
However, keep in mind that resale value isn't as local as the rest of it. If you're worried about selling an EV in a low-adoption state, most buying services (like ours 😉) now operate nationally so your car can find a buyer two states away as easily as down the street.
That’s a glimpse of the future, assuming one of the two big inflection points that Nathan calls out don’t occur. Check out the full video to hear what could dramatically increase EV adoption in the US.
From the Market
We refreshed our guide pages.
If you've shopped for an EV on a dealer's website lately, you've probably noticed the information can be thin. A lot of dealer sites still treat electric cars as an afterthought with vague range figures, nothing on how the car holds up used, little on charging or cold-weather performance.
While companies like Edmunds and Cars.com (along with hundreds of other dealerships) are doing real work to get that information in front of shoppers, we thought some of it should live on the Recurrent site, too.
We updated our EV Data Guides. Each model page now pulls from real-world fleet data: range retention at three and five years, winter and summer range, charging speeds, a year-by-year breakdown, recall histories, and practical tips for buying that model used.
Take a look and reply with any tips or typos.
Ask Recurrent
Question: "Is battery health worse in different parts of the country?"
Mostly no, with one caveat worth knowing.
In a lab setting, long-term heat exposure is the harder stressor on a battery. But every modern EV has thermal management built in to protect the pack, so a hot climate isn't the threat it's sometimes made out to be.
The bigger everyday factor is seasonality. Cold weather temporarily trims range: our study shows most EVs holding roughly 76–89% at 32°F. Summer heat has a much smaller impact.
The short version: where you live matters far less for battery health than how you treat the car.
Thinking about selling your EV?
As we noted up top, resale isn't just local. The right buyer might be 10 minutes or 10 states away. Recurrent connects you with a national network of vetted buyers, so you get real offers without the lowball trade-in or the parking-lot strangers.
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