What $6 gas does to EV sales

Bay Area gas blew by $6.00 a gallon in mid-May, up over a dollar from a year earlier. Some South San Francisco stations are even posting $7.89, according to market trackers.

If a pump spike was ever going to send shoppers stampeding to the EV lot, it would be in the Bay Area right now.

Except it isn't really happening.

Scott Pettitt is a VP at Del Grande Dealer Group, a Silicon Valley dealership that's been named one of Recurrent's Best Places to Buy an EV two years running. He's in the market where EV market share has been +35% and where a gas-spike-drives-EV-adoption story should land hardest. When we asked whether he'd seen a specific surge in EV interest since prices climbed, he said: "Not yet."

What he is seeing is exactly what history would predict.

Bay Area new car sales are down 15–20% year over year while used car availability is limited. Buyers are trading to lower monthly payments, not necessarily switching power trains.

This pattern isn't new. Go back to the 1970s oil shocks, 2008, and 2012: every time gas prices climb, new car sales drop and used car sales rise. The shift is toward cheaper, more efficient cars across the board. EVs benefit at the margins, but they're not the headline.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 is the exception. EV sales jumped alongside gas prices that year. But 2022 was also when the Inflation Reduction Act passed, new EV models started arriving at volume, and dealers were stacking rebates that put leases under $300 a month.

So if a gas spike doesn't create EV demand, what does it do?

It moves people who were already close. The shopper who's been EV-curious, has done the test drives, and checked the cost-of-ownership math finally makes the move. A $6 gas pump pushes them off the fence.

This is the backbone of "It’s a Great Time to Buy a Used EV" and similar stories you’ve been seeing. Used EVs are an excellent deal right now, but the gas prices aren’t the only reason why a used EV is a good deal.

This week's takeaway: If you've been on the fence about an EV, the pump isn't the reason to buy, but it is a reason to stop waiting. Run the 5-year cost of ownership on an EV you'd actually buy, compared head-to-head with a gas car at the same price. The math works whether gas is $3 or $6.

New EV demand is hiding behind the brand badge.

The headline number on new EV demand looks pessimistic. However, the story underneath is more interesting: a slump in new EV sales isn't universal, it's brand-specific.

Scott Pettitt (Del Grande Dealer Group ) says his Hyundai stores are out of EVs right now. They'd sell 100 EVs a month per store if they had the inventory. Kia is running 30 to 40 a month, Ford is 25 to 30, Chevy is 20. All in the same market, same gas prices, same buyers, but a completely different demand picture.

The lesson for owners on either side of the deal: if you're buying, your dealer's variety says more than the national headline does. If you're selling (especially a Hyundai or Kia EV) the demand for your specific car is stronger than the broader market would suggest.

Question: "How can I feel confident buying a used EV?"

It's the right question, and a piece in Canary Media this week makes a strong opening case: with used EV prices now roughly on par with used gas cars. The article walks through the practical checklist: figure out the range you actually need, test drive several, understand the battery health, and verify the warranty terms.

The piece is worth reading in full. But the most reassuring data is in what's happened to the cars over time:

Across Recurrent's community of 30,000+ EVs, fewer than 4% have had a battery replaced, and that's including cars 10+ years old. For EVs built since 2022, the replacement rate drops to 0.3%.

Range loss is also slower than most shoppers expect: the average EV retains 97% of its range after three years, and 95% after five. And the EPA sticker isn't even the ceiling — 68% of 2023 model-year EVs are still exceeding their original EPA range today.

Translation: the used EV you're looking at is almost certainly performing better than the spec sheet, the depreciation curve, and the dealer's pitch all suggest.

If you've been watching gas prices climb and wondering whether now's the moment to trade-in or trade up your EV, you're not the only one. Demand for used EVs with verified battery health is strong right now.

Recurrent connects you with vetted buyers who compete to make you a real offer, backed by your Recurrent data. No haggling, no tire-kickers, no driving lot to lot.

Get offer now.

New projections earlier this year have the Great Wealth Transfer at a potential $124 trillion through 2048.

BofA has been tracking younger high net worth investors closely. 83% of those 43 and younger said they currently own art or aspire to. This is compared to just 34% of those older than 43.

Meanwhile, the number of Warhols and Picassos isn’t going up.

Masterworks lets you invest in the art market before the full weight of that decades-long wealth transfer hits. 

70,000+ investors have already deployed $1.3 billion across 500+ artworks by Banksy, Basquiat, and many more. 29 sales to-date have delivered net annualized returns like 16.5%, 17.6%, and 17.8% on those held longer than one year, not including those unsold.

This is your opportunity to invest in the art market. Click here to skip the waitlist.

^{Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Investing involves risk. See important disclosures at masterworks.com/cd}